राजनीति

Prediction of Gujarat with Amaresh Mishra's eyes

The future of Indian democracy, even civilization, in a way, now depends on how Central and North Gujarat votes on 14th December.
Modi’s desperate pleas, it seems have fallen on deaf ears.
Out of 40 seats in Central Gujarat, where Godhara is located, BJP got 21, and Congress as high as 17 in 2012! So, Congress is on a strong wicket here.
But Central Gujarat contains Vadodara–still a BJP stronghold. Patidar influence is weakest here–one of the reasons why Congress did well in 2012 when Patidars were mainly, with BJP!
As things stand today, Congress seems to have retained Bhil-Koli votes in this belt. Congress will lag behind in Vadodara; but is all set to sweep Anand, Kheda, Mahisagar and Dahod. The contest is even in Panchmahal and Chota Udaipur.
Overall it is advantage Congress (28 out of 40) in Central Gujarat.
In North Gujarat, including Ahmedabad, the rural-urban divide persists. Congress will nearly sweep Banskantha, Patan, Aravalli and Gandhinagar. Contest is tough in Sabarkantha and Mehsana. Ahmedabad will still call for BJP, though with a reduced margin. Here, in North Gujarat, Congress will safely get 31 seats.
In the 2nd and final phase on 13th December, Congress is again expected to win 59 seats!
This takes Congress’ tally to 118 in the assembly elections!
13th December Gujarati voters have to bear in mind that Congress is winning anyway…there is no need to read even Rajdeep Sardesai who suffers from a Modi fixation.
Mainstream News is the most defective source of information today. RSS is playing mind games by planting stories or forcibly tweaking the story of fairly good names in journalism. The new line is–well, Congress is gaining, Rahul has made his mark–but BJP will still come back. No analysis–no cognizance of the Gujarati voter or the near anti-BJP uprising among Patidars, OBCs and farmers.
Also, no understanding of the chord struck by Rahul Gandhi’s temple visits, the Janeau–and the shift towards Congress of silent political influencers: the Brahmins!
CENTRAL GUJARAT
Anand District: 7 seats
2012: BJP-2, Congress-4, NCP-1
(BJP-Khambat, Anand; Congress-Borsad, Anklav, Petlad, Sojitra; NCP-Umreth)
2017 (projected): Congress-6, BJP-1
Kheda District: 7 seats
2012: BJP-2, Congress: 5
(BJP-Matar, Nadiad; Congress: Mehemdabad, Mahuda, Thasra, Kapadvanj, Balasinore)
2017 (projected): Congress-6, BJP-1
Mahisagar District (projection): 2 seats
2012: BJP-0; Congress-2
(Congress-Lunavada, Santrampur)
2017 (projected): Congress-2
Panchmahal District: 5
2012: BJP-4; Congress: 1
(BJP-Sherva, Morda Hafaf, Kalol, Halol; Congress: Godhara)
2017 (projected): Congress-3, BJP-2
Dahod District: 6 seats
2012: BJP-3, Congress-3
(BJP-Fatepura, Devgarhbadiya, Limkheda; Congress: Jhalod, Dahod, Ghadbada)
2017 (projected): Congress-5, BJP-1
Chota Udaipur: 3 Seats
2012: BJP-1, Congress-2
(BJP-Jetpur ST; Congress: Chota Udaipur, Sankheda)
2017 (projected): Congress-3
Vadodara District: 10 Seats
2012: BJP-9, Congress-0, Independent-1)
2017 (projected): Congress: 3, BJP-7
CENTRAL GUJARATGRAND TOTAL: 40 SEATS
2012: BJP-21, CONGRESS-17, NCP-1, INDEPENDENT-1
2017 (PROJECTED): CONGRESS: 28, BJP-12
NORTH GUJARAT
Banskantha District: 9 Seats
2012: BJP-4, Congress-5
(BJP-Vav, Tharad, Deesa, Deodar; Congress: Dhanera, Danta, Vadgam, Palampur, Kankrej)
2017 (projected): Congress-7, BJP-2
Patan District: 4 Seats
2012: BJP-3, Congress-1
(BJP-Radhanpur, Chadasma, Patan; Congress-Sidhpur)
2017 (projected): Congress-3, BJP-1
Mahesana District: 7 Seats
2012: BJP-5, Congress-2
(BJP-Kheralu, Unjha, Visnagar, Bechraji, Mahesana; Congress: Kadi, Vijapur)
2017 (projected): Congress-4, BJP-3
Sabarkantha District: 4 Seats
2012: BJP-2, Congress-2
(BJP-Himmatnagar, Idar; Congress-Khedbrahma, Prantij)
2017 (projected): Congress-3, BJP-1
Aravalli District: 3 Seats
2012: Congress-3, BJP-0
(Congress-Bhiloda, Modasa, Bayad)
2017 (projected): Congress-3, BJP-0
Gandhinagar District: 5 Seats
2012: BJP-2, Congress-3
(BJP-Gandhinagar Uttar, Gandhinagar Dakshin; Congress: Dahegam, Mansa, Kalol)
2017 (projected): Congress: 4, BJP-1
Ahmedabad District: 21 Seats
2012: BJP-17, Congress-4
(BJP-Ghatoldar, Vejalpur, Vatia, Ellisbridge, Naranpura, Nikol, Naroda, Thakkarbaba Nagar, Bapunagar, Amraiwadi, Jamalpura-Khadiya, Maninagar, Sabarmati, Asarwa, Daskoi, Dholka, Dhandhuka; Congress-Virangam, Sanand, Dariapur, Danilimda)
2017 (projected): Congress-7, BJP-14
NORTH GUJARAT
GRAND TOTAL: 53
2012: BJP-33, Congress-20
2017 (PROJECTED): CONGRESS:31, BJP:22
2017 GRAND TOTAL (CENTRAL AND NORTH GUJARAT): CONGRESS-59, BJP-34
2017 GRAND TOTAL (SAURASHTRA,SOUTH GUJARAT AND KUTCH): CONGRESS-59, BJP-26
2017 GRAND TOTAL (OVERALL): CONGRESS:118, BJP-60, OTHERS: 4

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Amaresh Mishra

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